ANALISIS TIME SERIES UNTUK MENDAPATKAN TREN PENDERITA TUBERKULOSIS

Afifah Febriarini, Siti (2023) ANALISIS TIME SERIES UNTUK MENDAPATKAN TREN PENDERITA TUBERKULOSIS. Thesis thesis, Institut Teknologi Dirgantara Adisutjipto.

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Abstract

The research entitled Time Series Analysis to Obtain a Trend of Tuberculosis Sufferers is a study with the aim of answering the question of how to get a trend to estimate how many Tuberculosis sufferers in Indonesia with historical data for the last 10 years. This study uses quantitative research for this type of research that is analytical in nature by processing existing data using statistical processing. The method used in this analysis is a time series method with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The results of this study concluded that the best model used in forecasting the trend of Tuberculosis sufferers is the ARIMA(2,0,1) model. The trend for Tuberculosis sufferers that was produced after conducting the analysis is to experience an increasing trend in 2021, and a decreasing trend in 2022. The results of calculating the accuracy of forecasting using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is 15.8% which can be interpreted that the results of forecasting are good.

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