PERBANDINGAN METODE SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE, EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING, DAN NAIVE METHOD UNTUK PREDIKSI HARGA RUMPUT LAUT DI KOTA TARAKAN BERBASIS ANDROID

VARIAN SAYOGA, MUHAMMAD (2019) PERBANDINGAN METODE SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE, EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING, DAN NAIVE METHOD UNTUK PREDIKSI HARGA RUMPUT LAUT DI KOTA TARAKAN BERBASIS ANDROID. Skripsi thesis, Institut Teknologi Dirgantara Adisutjipto.

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Abstract

Seaweed is one of the main leading commodities in Tarakan City. The problem that is often encountered in the field is that flutative or unstable seaweed prices are caused by various factors such as the drying process, long marketing chain, and increasing demand from domestic companies. Forecasting (forecast) is an activity or business that knows events that will occur at the time that will use historical data. The prediction method used in this system is Simple Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Naive Method. Measuring the error rate used for grass price predictions using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). Android�based seaweed price prediction application and betting on seaweed price data in 2018-2019. Based on the evaluation obtained by the Simple Moving Average method, the original price difference with the lowest prediction price is Rp. 564,8. Based on the error value calculated using MAD with each experiment obtained the Naïve Method produces an error rate called 618,33 compared to the Simple Moving Average, and Exponential Smoothing method.

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